Tennis · resolved market

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Peyton Stearns vs Clara Tauson

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf225593011ebb7347ac1cecba4fc49502bc680ba0d0c01a3015d78d1346f8afd

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Tausonof Stearns, Tauson
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $71,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $80,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,375 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Stearns	15c	9,340$1,391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,391.2	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Stearns	0c	6,834$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stearns	30c	2,333$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	1,039	54.6%567 W · 472 L	+37.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed Stearns	2c	2,121$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.78	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Tauson	70c	1,562$1,093 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.11	1,106	50.3%556 W · 550 L	-21.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Stearns	12c	1,415$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.88	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Stearns	32c	1,094$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	572	49.5%283 W · 289 L	-32.8wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Tauson	70c	1,001$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.42	145	68.3%99 W · 46 L	+9.7wins	+0.07per pick	62cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Tauson	69c	1,000$694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.79	454	57.9%263 W · 191 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Stearns	14c	964$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.71	520	37.7%196 W · 324 L	-30.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Stearns	30c	855.65$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.56	430	42.8%184 W · 246 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Tauson	79c	852.94$671 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.63	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Stearns	12c	840.9$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	678	36%244 W · 434 L	+8.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8be…f991backed Stearns	31c	799.99$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Tauson	69c	725.41$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.88	655	58.9%386 W · 269 L	-32.1wins	-0.05per pick	64cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Stearns	10c	722.22$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	1,130	27.9%315 W · 815 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Stearns	8c	663.05$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.04	2,426	47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Stearns	15c	646.27$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	283	22.3%63 W · 220 L	-13.3wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Stearns	32c	472$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.04	381	33.9%129 W · 252 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Stearns	8c	455$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.3	127	22%28 W · 99 L	+9.9wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Stearns	30c	431$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.16	7,724	47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L	+41.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Stearns	11c	393.59$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.56	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Stearns	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	693	50.5%350 W · 343 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Stearns	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,107	43.5%481 W · 626 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Tauson	68c	295.55$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.58	1,658	49.9%828 W · 830 L	+7.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Stearns	26c	261.27$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	960	35.4%340 W · 620 L	-40.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Stearns	30c	249.99$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	4,076	39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L	+93.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Stearns	29c	239.58$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	378	54%204 W · 174 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Stearns	32c	222$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.04	1,414	41.1%581 W · 833 L	-21.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Stearns	22c	179$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.38	1,218	41.1%500 W · 718 L	-30.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3578…f163backed Tauson	69c	173.91$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.91	398	72.4%288 W · 110 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	70cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Stearns	31c	165$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.15	7,139	49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L	+109.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb740…2ec1backed Tauson	70c	152.93$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.27	351	57%200 W · 151 L	-13.4wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9da2…ed3abacked Tauson	70c	147.29$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.29	106	68.9%73 W · 33 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	66cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5661…6323backed Tauson	71c	146.8$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.82	102	67.6%69 W · 33 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fa…41c2backed Tauson	69c	144.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.93	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf19b…1613backed Tauson	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	176	50.6%89 W · 87 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Stearns	32c	130$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	593	48.9%290 W · 303 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Tauson	69c	120.29$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.29	311	53.1%165 W · 146 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Stearns	31c	117.07$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.29	421	41.8%176 W · 245 L	-12.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Stearns	16c	113.46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	7,816	50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L	+95.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Tauson	76c	107.67$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.13	264	62.1%164 W · 100 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd1…cfb4backed Tauson	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Stearns	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	76	44.7%34 W · 42 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Stearns	12c	99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	990	44.8%444 W · 546 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Tauson	70c	90$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	587	53.7%315 W · 272 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf77…d66dbacked Tauson	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Stearns	30c	71$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.47	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Stearns	24c	64.84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Stearns	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	1,861	44.4%827 W · 1,034 L	-15.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eef…dc2ebacked Tauson	68c	60$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	22	81.8%18 W · 4 L	+4.0wins	+0.18per pick	64cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Stearns	32c	60$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	957	42.1%403 W · 554 L	-24.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Stearns	32c	59.41$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.01	153	43.8%67 W · 86 L	-5.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Stearns	32c	59$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.88	432	42.4%183 W · 249 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d0…91acbacked Tauson	71c	44.88$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.88	102	61.8%63 W · 39 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Tauson	69c	43.27$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.27	2,561	63%1,613 W · 948 L	-10.2wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4712…5bd6backed Tauson	78c	43.2$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.53	144	75%108 W · 36 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	71cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…6484backed Tauson	70c	42.86$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.86	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d7…b2adbacked Tauson	78c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	25	64%16 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Tauson	69c	38$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.82	1,768	43.2%764 W · 1,004 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x112e…0d1fbacked Tauson	69c	33.33$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.33	349	65%227 W · 122 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d5…a33bbacked Tauson	69c	33.33$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.33	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x59d0…a871backed Stearns	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	173	54.3%94 W · 79 L	+12.5wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Tauson	80c	31.19$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.27	88	48.9%43 W · 45 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1793…4ebbbacked Tauson	69c	28.94$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.94	940	60.6%570 W · 370 L	+11.3wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Tauson	70c	28.4$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	749	61.8%463 W · 286 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Tauson	76c	26.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.32	412	72.8%300 W · 112 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	71cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Tauson	69c	20.29$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.29	580	67.8%393 W · 187 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9d…9e33backed Tauson	69c	20.29$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.29	51	64.7%33 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Tauson	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	332	41.6%138 W · 194 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Tauson	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	164	68.9%113 W · 51 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Peyton Stearns vs Clara Tausonthis page
Set 1 Winner: Stearns vs TausonTauson won
Stearns vs. Tauson: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Peyton Stearns vs Clara Tauson

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event