Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf231dfaf734da2e60fa9ac00be7a77f83d323309de2d8aa8e20913df694fbf58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 250.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 8c | 170.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 167$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 28c | 155.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 136.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 133.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 124.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 74c | 105.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 28c | 99.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b91…1763backed Yes | 24c | 91.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 79.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 76.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 75.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 71.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 69.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 29c | 68.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 77c | 60.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 59.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 50.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 21c | 50.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 44.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 75c | 33.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 50c | 31.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 72c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 79c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 75c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 78c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.