South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2789a195f4a1d3a6524210e44d3e48f4ee2d4b6f443356c3bbbcc0aab9e68a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc283…b876backed Under | 14c | 3,293$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.3 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 2,209$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.61 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Under | 60c | 1,502$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Under | 19c | 800$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 55c | 552.85$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.25 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 60c | 502.37$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 258.89$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.33 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Over | 38c | 249$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 68c | 237$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.52 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f7…91aabacked Under | 47c | 208.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…7fe2backed Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…a56fbacked Under | 40c | 159.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Under | 10c | 122$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Under | 57c | 99.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 53c | 83.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 33c | 75.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 64c | 46.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…56abbacked Under | 45c | 38.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…1c07backed Under | 46c | 30.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 47c | 22.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 80c | 21.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)CF Cruz Azul won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.