South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6621fb46af5dc696b86e3ce646970d1955f0427ec219a6862b481f7f6a7acb54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc283…b876backed Under | 49c | 2,039$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.09 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 53c | 1,039$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.93 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 53c | 860.51$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.61 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 514.56$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.85 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Over | 23c | 399.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.72 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 291$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.14 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 279.72$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.49 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 279.59$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.72 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 155$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…4ee0backed Under | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Under | 78c | 100.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 39c | 72.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 33c | 69.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Under | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 52c | 55.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 49c | 20.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)CF Cruz Azul won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.