Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c6f7b62bc89b6e98c3e87bc073f6e618b4dbf28e5695c2e1ab9d34f4ab64f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,782$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 52c | 1,285$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.85 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 11c | 672.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.15 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 22c | 668.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.84 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 14c | 631.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.66 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…0d0dbacked Yes | 80c | 370$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 56c | 362.87$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.42 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 15c | 311.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked No | 11c | 303$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 15c | 248$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 244.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.11 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 205$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe721…a4d4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…bfdfbacked Yes | 24c | 164.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 160.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 41c | 149.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 13c | 148.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 79c | 134.28$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 10c | 128.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 29c | 127.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 10c | 127.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 10c | 113.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 35c | 109.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 39c | 101.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 19c | 93.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 34c | 79.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 21c | 73.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2096…bc4bbacked No | 77c | 70.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 65.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 54.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 56c | 45.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Yes | 74c | 40.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 40c | 34.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 39c | 31.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 46c | 21.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…ec7dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 79c | 14.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.