Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f20956a2e512a78c46f8fe7add4726b9ed70b032afcdfb5b4b9fdcd6d9eb758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 25c | 576.89$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 2c | 560$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 28c | 305.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…8f5fbacked No | 74c | 292.54$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 289.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 7c | 178.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…9f55backed Yes | 27c | 175.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 32c | 157.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 13c | 156$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 154.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 16c | 128.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 78c | 115.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 76c | 100.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…5134backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 99.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 25c | 98.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 76c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 11c | 93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 87.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 25c | 80.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 17c | 73.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 73c | 71.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 73c | 57.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1417…38afbacked No | 72c | 55.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 74c | 54.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…4572backed Yes | 26c | 51.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 77c | 51.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 50.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…4eb1backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 75c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 33.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.