Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e938167f8a6478abe57dc5aa0f7e46e152cef19a599150e74400839b05ebfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 454.17$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.54 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 37c | 384.63$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 74c | 302$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 47c | 198.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 189.68$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 170.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 64c | 113.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 36c | 113.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 59c | 98.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 16c | 88.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 73.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 56.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 76c | 46.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 24c | 45.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes | 52c | 40.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…f019backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 58c | 28.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…471bbacked Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…2a75backed Yes | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b3…1b3ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-03?Yes won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.