South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-01-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf305475981883bdab933501549deee0d0af596764358fe49793b9153a5f6b669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 25c | 3,546$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.67 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 16c | 1,720$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.06 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 66c | 968.39$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.61 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 71c | 941.79$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.9 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…ac13backed Yes | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 63c | 634$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.58 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 63c | 571.43$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.43 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 63c | 399.93$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 29c | 288$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 36c | 171.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 62c | 162.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 34c | 149.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…f397backed Yes | 62c | 122.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…f4d8backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…336bbacked Yes | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 21c | 89.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Yes | 66c | 89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…60f2backed Yes | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 39c | 51.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 28c | 41.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 36c | 38.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…8772backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…22efbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed Yes | 66c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-01-28?this page
- Will CA River Plate vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata end in a draw?No won
- Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-01-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.