NHL · resolved market
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Traktor
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf30bec1fa695c3a7e05b0d31ab36e29677696200f5e0723c8adce034a08a2305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avangard Omskof Avangard Omsk, Traktor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85e9…5e96backed Avangard Omsk | 65c | 11,700$7,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,095 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd68…90efbacked Traktor | 35c | 11,700$4,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,095 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Traktor | 32c | 196.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Avangard Omsk | 59c | 147.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Traktor | 41c | 123.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…27bcbacked Avangard Omsk | 68c | 110.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f50…1647backed Avangard Omsk | 72c | 101.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Avangard Omsk | 66c | 87.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Traktor | 40c | 66.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Avangard Omsk | 65c | 56.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Traktor | 38c | 52.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Traktor | 35c | 50.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Avangard Omsk | 70c | 50.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Avangard Omsk | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Traktor | 35c | 31.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Traktor | 35c | 30.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Avangard Omsk | 67c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5514…72bdbacked Avangard Omsk | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…5cc2backed Avangard Omsk | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…9d6bbacked Avangard Omsk | 69c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.