NHL · resolved market
SHL: Faerjestad vs. Roegle
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf36371e6b301e6d6564964cfbe5069d301f01b2764f8692df937cec381b2b5b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Faerjestadof Faerjestad, Roegle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Faerjestad | 60c | 1,156$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.9 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Roegle | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Roegle | 39c | 194.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Roegle | 43c | 183.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Roegle | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 32%58 W · 123 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Roegle | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Roegle | 42c | 83.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…229abacked Roegle | 38c | 72.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Faerjestad | 47c | 59.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Roegle | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Roegle | 40c | 57.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Roegle | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Roegle | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Faerjestad | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Faerjestad | 54c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…756dbacked Faerjestad | 58c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2709backed Faerjestad | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Faerjestad | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.