Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3bbc3a4ffdc912b3f6d60e6fc19c5747c67def85753b21d2ee53db2709fbdbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 56c | 3,585$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.71 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 2,058$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.75 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 1,589$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,455$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 54c | 988$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.48 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 949.32$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.37 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 623.7$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.5 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 395.06$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.74 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 51c | 389.12$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 388.89$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 51c | 252.94$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 56c | 198.21$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 71c | 141.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 54c | 139.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 70c | 127.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 121.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 55c | 101$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 93.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 67c | 77.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 51c | 45.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 50c | 45.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 55c | 25.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5540…eff4backed Over | 56c | 22.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.