Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7afb32ed447c607bd797e14488ab1c56ee23ba8f4516b6f5f2d33b65579175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 1,204$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 33c | 606$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 9c | 380$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Under | 73c | 298.48$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 23c | 176.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 47c | 158.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 67c | 149.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 134.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 47c | 111.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 22c | 90.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 78.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 60.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 19c | 57.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 67c | 52.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…328cbacked Over | 32c | 34.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 28.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 66c | 21.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.