Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Assche (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3dba76de841a3390dc375a96032100967ae1be3263ae26b89ae232eba6ab88c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Asscheof Rublev, Assche
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Rublev | 60c | 2,236$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.5 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Rublev | 8c | 1,873$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 159 | 31.4%50 W · 109 L | +15.3wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Rublev | 62c | 1,767$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Rublev | 60c | 1,704$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.62 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1a93backed Assche | 42c | 1,475$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.62 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Assche | 40c | 1,400$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 124 | 44.4%55 W · 69 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Rublev | 60c | 1,012$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.2 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Assche | 61c | 925.43$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.56 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Rublev | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Assche | 41c | 847.46$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Assche | 40c | 843.11$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.76 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Assche | 40c | 817.2$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.37 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Assche | 45c | 727.62$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.62 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Rublev | 62c | 694.03$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.3 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Assche | 38c | 599.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.2 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Assche | 37c | 512.48$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.86 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Rublev | 20c | 467.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Rublev | 34c | 360$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Rublev | 62c | 315.87$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 262 | 63%165 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Assche | 38c | 259$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Rublev | 58c | 247.5$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Rublev | 25c | 223$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Rublev | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Assche | 42c | 199.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Assche | 40c | 184.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Assche | 42c | 179.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Assche | 39c | 136.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Rublev | 55c | 128.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rublev | 53c | 128.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Assche | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…f10abacked Rublev | 57c | 105.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Rublev | 49c | 99.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Assche | 78c | 92.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…dcb4backed Rublev | 15c | 88.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Rublev | 62c | 79.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Rublev | 56c | 69.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Assche | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Assche | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…6c53backed Rublev | 56c | 56.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Assche | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Rublev | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Assche | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Rublev | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…9c0bbacked Rublev | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Assche | 40c | 24.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…ac0cbacked Rublev | 59c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Assche | 75c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Assche (+1.5)this page
- Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van AsscheLuca Van Assche won
- Rublev vs. Assche: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Rublev vs. Assche: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs AsscheRublev won
- Set 2 Winner: Rublev vs AsscheAssche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.