Music · resolved market
Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf44a1ec703ebb4b274aa5613c91f775ed20af8526c12a77aa4f891795b4c9a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb898…1288backed Yes | 50c | 1,062$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 22c | 442.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed No | 50c | 355.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582d…c221backed No | 79c | 290.4$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 67c | 246.3$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131f…2fedbacked Yes | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 49c | 130.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 68c | 80.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 78.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…998cbacked Yes | 64c | 76.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd7…3aa0backed No | 57c | 61.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +176.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed No | 73c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 36c | 42.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…316ebacked No | 54c | 33.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…2371backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…abacbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2025?this page
- Will France win Junior Eurovision 2025?Yes won
- Will Georgia win Junior Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Montenegro win Junior Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Poland win Junior Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Spain win Junior Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Ukraine win Junior Eurovision 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.