Asian League · resolved market
FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf45b5b0070968d2ffbdcc150cbb62c4a97d19baa79d7d702ebc1457e942f1396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 630.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 26c | 538.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 347.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Under | 79c | 253.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 22c | 231.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 20c | 189.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Under | 71c | 178.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 21c | 125.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…2e1abacked Under | 72c | 104.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 27c | 99.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 70c | 80.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 80cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)FC Tōkyō won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.