World Politics · resolved market
NHL 4 Nations: Finland vs. Canada
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf478c60dc797ebd33695e9341bfe6953436461028652f69a9a47a773c25bde76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadaof Finland, Canada
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Finland | 20c | 1,200$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Finland | 21c | 1,082$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Canada | 80c | 697.42$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d6…eec0backed Canada | 80c | 672.64$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Canada | 80c | 586.73$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Canada | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…4641backed Finland | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Finland | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Canada | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…72e2backed Finland | 22c | 107$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…6817backed Canada | 78c | 107$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Canada | 78c | 98.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Canada | 79c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edd…56ddbacked Finland | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…ba9abacked Finland | 20c | 58.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f7…d2a4backed Finland | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…c4adbacked Canada | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…46d9backed Finland | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…c2c5backed Canada | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Canada | 76c | 39.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Canada | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…55c3backed Canada | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a2…061abacked Canada | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…16c3backed Canada | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…9db7backed Canada | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12b…5d92backed Canada | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…0001backed Canada | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…ffc7backed Canada | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd765…ee9ebacked Canada | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…e82fbacked Canada | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…c765backed Canada | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…78f7backed Canada | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Canada | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…a18cbacked Canada | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…c069backed Canada | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…5e48backed Canada | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.