Asian League · resolved market
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48065a13a853ecd5d36b417b0856309c43d12cb1054fd161abb36340b648244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,004$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +13.5wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 65c | 498.64$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.64 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 46c | 414.07$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 735 | 38.6%284 W · 451 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 25c | 394.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 54c | 337$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.98 | 1,109 | 46.2%512 W · 597 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…fad4backed Under | 55c | 269.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 46c | 267.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 1,434 | 35.2%505 W · 929 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 60c | 266.92$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 67c | 234.97$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 227.83$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 56c | 145.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 75.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 59.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 54c | 30.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5this page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Kyōto Sanga FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.