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Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 3?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,969
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,969 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb784…d061backed Yes64c2,511$1,616 inWon+$895.254461.4%27 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed No44c2,342$1,022 inLost-$1,022.071,32224%317 W · 1,005 L-64.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed No39c2,135$823 inLost-$823.4412051.7%62 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No39c863.21$338 inLost-$337.6432135.2%113 W · 208 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No34c329.99$113 inLost-$113.312243.4%53 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes43c200$85 inWon+$1157234.7%25 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf20…bcfdbacked No59c169.84$100 inLost-$10012958.1%75 W · 54 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No38c100$38 inLost-$3897140.3%391 W · 580 L-73.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06a1…9077backed Yes51c78.43$40 inWon+$38.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed No38c78.13$30 inLost-$29.940052.3%209 W · 191 L+20.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No27c74.28$20 inLost-$19.851,0449.2%96 W · 948 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes45c60$27 inWon+$33.319041.1%78 W · 112 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82af…f7d1backed Yes52c56.42$29 inWon+$27.082965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No47c51.04$24 inLost-$24.24812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0503…4155backed No39c50$19 inLost-$19.2511338.1%43 W · 70 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7546…1293backed Yes80c40$32 inWon+$8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed No38c40$15 inLost-$15.26955.1%38 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…15c8backed Yes65c40$26 inWon+$141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02fa…d979backed Yes52c36.76$19 inWon+$17.643357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked No49c23.4$11 inLost-$11.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+85.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed Yes53c20.38$11 inWon+$9.5815457.1%88 W · 66 L+21.3wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+41.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes76c17$13 inWon+$416376.7%125 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd770…9bdebacked Yes64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.631747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.