Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf49c7cca4b469bc68ae1b9c2121f6994ca340331a283dd663c1fd67448b0a8b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked Yes | 15c | 16,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,600.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…2323backed No | 0c | 11,918$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 55c | 491.91$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.79 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 166.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.96 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 80c | 147$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c8…7e80backed Yes | 20c | 100.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…bfbbbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 19c | 84.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…5f2fbacked Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +155%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7d…facfbacked No | 80c | 36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?this page
- Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
- Will Meta Platforms (META) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.