Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9879083cc4392d2b09ddec35303cdeae07a1c4726aaaf12a73737eeac334b55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 17c | 293.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 29c | 221.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bb…c22abacked No | 67c | 190$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…1a85backed Yes | 33c | 190$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…2323backed Yes | 6c | 173.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 16c | 165.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 160.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…d855backed Yes | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…146dbacked No | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 141.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 69c | 133.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 83.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…de7ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…389ebacked Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…d7ebbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbe…1531backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 75c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 80c | 19.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?this page
- Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?Yes won
- Will Meta Platforms (META) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.