MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4a69405af40e7c2424a440fe0577ee4e2be265f2f651bf2050b6b1dde8ed6db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89cd…f03bbacked Texas Rangers | 56c | 1,027$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 1,000$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.37 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 9c | 916.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Tampa Bay Rays | 5c | 846.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 664.22$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.26 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 600$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Texas Rangers | 53c | 537.21$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.49 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 255$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 20.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.