Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c84d6bbf21fdfe2eb305e15ddb85ca31d4676ec0b29e4dc2eed0a611108e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed AVULUS | 41c | 2,463$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.31 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 40c | 1,674$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.67 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed L1ga Team | 80c | 1,432$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.42 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed L1ga Team | 52c | 1,426$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.17 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed AVULUS | 41c | 1,354$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.5 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed L1ga Team | 64c | 779.68$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.68 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked AVULUS | 19c | 777$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed L1ga Team | 60c | 641.57$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.65 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed L1ga Team | 52c | 306.31$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.33 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed AVULUS | 40c | 287.39$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed AVULUS | 20c | 246.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS | 11c | 236.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked L1ga Team | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked L1ga Team | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed L1ga Team | 65c | 190$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 12c | 183.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…8efebacked L1ga Team | 48c | 165.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked AVULUS | 54c | 160.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed L1ga Team | 63c | 114.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed AVULUS | 38c | 106.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed AVULUS | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed AVULUS | 37c | 92.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked AVULUS | 42c | 89.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…fa4bbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 79.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed AVULUS | 36c | 78.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed AVULUS | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 57c | 45.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked AVULUS | 53c | 40.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked L1ga Team | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Group AL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.