Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65cd7977f37e343a434fe32a1d7b237dc7071540d3c939c9c62f9d1fe02f4cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,219 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 7c | 10,478$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.16 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…10efbacked AVULUS | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…0a3dbacked L1ga Team | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929b…df32backed L1ga Team | 47c | 3,900$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…dfcabacked AVULUS | 53c | 3,900$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…3e7ebacked L1ga Team | 47c | 3,850$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…ce00backed AVULUS | 53c | 3,850$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed AVULUS | 7c | 2,100$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 14c | 1,593$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.06 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed AVULUS | 10c | 1,554$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x147f…b339backed L1ga Team | 48c | 627$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 71c | 620.84$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…5c2fbacked AVULUS | 52c | 606$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…dfd9backed AVULUS | 4c | 550$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed L1ga Team | 58c | 381.34$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.34 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…2dd1backed AVULUS | 52c | 367$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047d…3fb9backed L1ga Team | 48c | 346$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed AVULUS | 48c | 328.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.46 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked L1ga Team | 48c | 314.58$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked AVULUS | 52c | 309$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed L1ga Team | 47c | 308.49$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed L1ga Team | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed AVULUS | 11c | 203$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked AVULUS | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed AVULUS | 52c | 199.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed AVULUS | 28c | 182.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed AVULUS | 47c | 177.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed L1ga Team | 47c | 169.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked AVULUS | 42c | 154.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked AVULUS | 14c | 136.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…e10abacked L1ga Team | 54c | 133.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed AVULUS | 26c | 133.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed AVULUS | 19c | 109.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed L1ga Team | 78c | 107.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked AVULUS | 53c | 105.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked AVULUS | 52c | 104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed AVULUS | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed L1ga Team | 46c | 83.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked L1ga Team | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed AVULUS | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked L1ga Team | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked L1ga Team | 80c | 55.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…fa4bbacked L1ga Team | 74c | 54.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked L1ga Team | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked L1ga Team | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed AVULUS | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AVULUS | 34c | 37.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed L1ga Team | 80c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed L1ga Team | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed AVULUS | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…08ddbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 31.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked L1ga Team | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked L1ga Team | 71c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked AVULUS | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked AVULUS | 50c | 26.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed L1ga Team | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked L1ga Team | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked L1ga Team | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…b8c0backed AVULUS | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed L1ga Team | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674c…6dabbacked L1ga Team | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team | 54c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Group Athis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.