Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d1b1d89dd497402d6fce8b6f8c73ddee42324697cc6b7c02e372f6e2fa0bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 0c | 10,945$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 72c | 266.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 261.21$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…8e23backed Yes | 45c | 208.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 30c | 174.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 69c | 157.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 128.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 32c | 121.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 120.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 75c | 111.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 101.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 67c | 99.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 34c | 96.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 75.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 66c | 72.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 71.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 68.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 52c | 62.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 56c | 60.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 60.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 58.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…9aeebacked Yes | 28c | 54.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 38c | 53.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 49c | 53.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…c678backed Yes | 36c | 52.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 51.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 47.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 61c | 38.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…c46fbacked No | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 49c | 30.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 41c | 29.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked No | 55c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…4c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 21.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 79c | 20.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e135backed No | 68c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…d05dbacked No | 69c | 15.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.