Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e2dd9881ce3bb84e3c613b42f2b9e16d219464f66ddb97e6d76e4dbf29adc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Team Falcons | 59c | 4,082$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.87 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed MOUZ | 48c | 3,474$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.21 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed MOUZ | 10c | 2,194$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 53c | 1,513$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.46 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ | 44c | 1,054$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.46 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…1f99backed MOUZ | 2c | 1,023$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…a0b7backed MOUZ | 26c | 764.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked MOUZ | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…d5c3backed Team Falcons | 64c | 408.91$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ | 35c | 323.18$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed MOUZ | 11c | 279.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ | 11c | 279.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2919…bdadbacked MOUZ | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 238.8$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa17…3aa2backed Team Falcons | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed MOUZ | 39c | 137.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6698…e620backed Team Falcons | 65c | 94.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed Team Falcons | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 235 | 62.1%146 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Team Falcons | 65c | 73.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons | 56c | 61.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed MOUZ | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed MOUZ | 39c | 53.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed MOUZ | 43c | 39.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed MOUZ | 43c | 39.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Team Falcons | 67c | 30.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…50efbacked MOUZ | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.