Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb2b33938c6b8297871539f908f98bf0e8f6dc3d4be0637986e0d3d6906e522a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Team Falcons, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons | 68c | 11,070$7,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,552.4 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ | 36c | 9,399$3,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,043.47 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked MOUZ | 47c | 6,804$3,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,573.22 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Team Falcons | 53c | 5,719$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.58 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 33c | 5,295$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,529.79 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Team Falcons | 55c | 4,902$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.95 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed MOUZ | 35c | 4,663$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.87 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Falcons | 74c | 4,005$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.42 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed MOUZ | 43c | 2,058$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.63 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 1,909$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.72 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed MOUZ | 38c | 1,268$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.43 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked MOUZ | 57c | 1,185$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.32 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ | 59c | 1,182$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.28 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 56c | 1,175$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Team Falcons | 9c | 949.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed MOUZ | 36c | 938.66$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.04 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked Team Falcons | 48c | 834.51$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ | 52c | 815.74$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.55 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.23 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…1d7dbacked Team Falcons | 40c | 656.47$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 646.56$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.99 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Team Falcons | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons | 76c | 600$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed MOUZ | 40c | 593.59$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9837backed Team Falcons | 49c | 567.45$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked MOUZ | 66c | 545.44$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.45 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 28c | 500.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.01 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed MOUZ | 26c | 460.52$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed MOUZ | 56c | 458.01$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.52 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b2…caa8backed Team Falcons | 40c | 357.74$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…a8b6backed MOUZ | 41c | 324.45$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed MOUZ | 42c | 320.56$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.18 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked MOUZ | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…0f52backed MOUZ | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed MOUZ | 52c | 286.52$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Team Falcons | 67c | 250.63$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MOUZ | 25c | 216$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…3c5fbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 200.07$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons | 57c | 199.12$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ | 32c | 163.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed MOUZ | 44c | 158.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ | 36c | 157.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 151.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…2927backed MOUZ | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ | 37c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa17…3aa2backed Team Falcons | 69c | 124.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Team Falcons | 50c | 119.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ | 39c | 119.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…8063backed Team Falcons | 61c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c88…d85dbacked MOUZ | 40c | 105.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Team Falcons | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Team Falcons | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked MOUZ | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed MOUZ | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Team Falcons | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…6f25backed Team Falcons | 75c | 92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Team Falcons | 73c | 88.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed MOUZ | 42c | 82.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ | 32c | 79.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed MOUZ | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed MOUZ | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Team Falcons | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked MOUZ | 26c | 44.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Team Falcons | 75c | 44.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…9d6abacked Team Falcons | 54c | 43.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…745fbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed MOUZ | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked MOUZ | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…573abacked Team Falcons | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Team Falcons | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed MOUZ | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Team Falcons | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked MOUZ | 67c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6529…ab39backed MOUZ | 42c | 29.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed Team Falcons | 63c | 26.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed Team Falcons | 63c | 22.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Team Falcons | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…7527backed Team Falcons | 64c | 16.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.6wins | -0.42per pick | 69cpaid | -65%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.