Mls · resolved market
MLS: Will CF Montreal beat New England?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4f0cd40526e5df445ce909454441b24fefd5fadcffe2f06211226eece86749e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,976$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.76 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 76c | 1,000$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.88 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 69c | 994.71$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.46 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 22c | 808.44$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.58 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 36c | 470$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.17 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Yes | 27c | 437$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.84 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…d54ebacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Yes | 25c | 299$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.8 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 58c | 248$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes | 22c | 199.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 77c | 160$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 26c | 127.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 74c | 118$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 54c | 97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 22c | 72.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed No | 77c | 35.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 75c | 18.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MLS: Will CF Montreal beat New England?this page
- MLS: Will New England beat CF Montreal?No won
- MLS: Will New England vs. CF Montreal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.