La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf52cc444115aeb1fdead4413e7c7c122fd0c7952a8bf2de55611f34365207eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 8c | 22,323$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.86 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 10c | 16,897$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.78 | 88 | 28.4%25 W · 63 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 8c | 14,191$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.51 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 7,453$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.51 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 8c | 4,316$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.31 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…3092backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 9c | 3,970$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.3 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,670$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 7c | 2,533$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.31 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 2,031$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.94 | 155 | 16.1%25 W · 130 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…f6a5backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…088abacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Yes | 10c | 832.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 9c | 643.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 8c | 643.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 500.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…ac12backed Yes | 9c | 299.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 7c | 287.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…d8afbacked No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…550dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Yes | 22c | 222$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 10c | 214.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 7c | 209.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb3…caf3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 22c | 135.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 13c | 76.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…0229backed Yes | 23c | 65.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…f481backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?No won
- Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.