Lol · resolved market
LoL: Rising Gaming vs Arneb - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf534fe0115756f894649c0b0da43d194678cb08a1f883482d6a4a90ceaa85103
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnebof Rising Gaming, Arneb
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977c…45f0backed Arneb | 41c | 9,195$3,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,461.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Rising Gaming | 59c | 4,900$2,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,892 | 1,522 | 54.7%832 W · 690 L | +37.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Rising Gaming | 61c | 4,000$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.32 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf115…ad6bbacked Arneb | 40c | 1,800$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Rising Gaming | 60c | 884.87$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.01 | 2,178 | 53.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L | +61.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Rising Gaming | 59c | 805$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.95 | 649 | 43.1%280 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…6302backed Arneb | 39c | 371.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.79 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Rising Gaming | 58c | 366.89$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 1,502 | 50.3%756 W · 746 L | +71.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Rising Gaming | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Rising Gaming | 57c | 170.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 548 | 29.6%162 W · 386 L | -36.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Arneb | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 797 | 45.8%365 W · 432 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rising Gaming | 28c | 101.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,836 | 41.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L | -12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Arneb | 79c | 94.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…1c90backed Arneb | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Rising Gaming | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 411 | 56.7%233 W · 178 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Rising Gaming | 60c | 25.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 357 | 55.7%199 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Rising Gaming | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 452 | 44.5%201 W · 251 L | -30.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…586cbacked Arneb | 67c | 22.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 269 | 37.5%101 W · 168 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Arneb | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Arneb | 57c | 17.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Rising Gaming vs Arneb - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- LoL: Rising Gaming vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular SeasonRising Gaming won
- LoL: Rising Gaming vs Arneb - Game 2 WinnerRising Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.