Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5426b503bdc589632b608fd1a926c69bafca4449cd3eaf4128b0576a70fccc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 16,948$11,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,019.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 21c | 7,999$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.82 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 47c | 4,559$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.28 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 68c | 4,250$2,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,885.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 66c | 3,030$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 18c | 1,471$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.97 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 66c | 1,125$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.54 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 68c | 1,034$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.26 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 32c | 847.66$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.37 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…1bc0backed Under | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked Over | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 48c | 380$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.65 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 33c | 354.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.16 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 32c | 302.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.73 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…f159backed Over | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Under | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Over | 67c | 289.91$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 33c | 288.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 48c | 230$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Over | 68c | 228.57$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…1379backed Over | 18c | 201.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 34c | 174$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed Over | 68c | 157.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Over | 68c | 146.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 32c | 121.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…61cdbacked Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dca…ab11backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…c439backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…8382backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Over | 67c | 71.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 33c | 64.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 67c | 64.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Under | 70c | 56.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 30c | 56.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 67c | 51.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…79c4backed Over | 66c | 45.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 68c | 38.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…6570backed Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 68c | 36.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…d077backed Over | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 34c | 35.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9992…9b31backed Over | 67c | 34.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e3…2151backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…5407backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…1e3bbacked Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 49c | 24.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3081…ea72backed Under | 57c | 17.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Under won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.