Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf56ff481d6eb43313b7ce830530a344cac00808e0822d5685565d7b886ddc787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 32c | 320.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 63c | 294.12$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 74c | 255.18$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 58c | 155.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 32c | 144.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 56c | 141.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 46c | 102.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 66c | 94.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 63c | 79.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed No | 22c | 69.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 41c | 64.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 62c | 64.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 68c | 59.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 42c | 58.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 27c | 54.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 72c | 49.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 55c | 45.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 37c | 43.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…9bd1backed No | 35c | 41.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 79c | 40.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 59c | 40.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…5029backed Yes | 58c | 38.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 60c | 38.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 47c | 37.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…a2a1backed No | 42c | 36.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 55c | 35.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 48c | 34.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed Yes | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Yes | 69c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…6b07backed No | 50c | 28.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 80c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 24.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…1fe0backed No | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 49c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…0e82backed Yes | 65c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…43bdbacked Yes | 68c | 17.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 39°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.