Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-10-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf571030864629e20d6f734803817b9078d0609bd85898d4862a9a948a92ad68f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 47c | 19,975$9,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,586.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 56c | 3,821$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.22 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 50c | 2,031$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.4 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Yes | 45c | 1,628$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 1,045$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.81 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed No | 57c | 626.12$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 54c | 551.15$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.62 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 35c | 450$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 45c | 400$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 50c | 239.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 50c | 195.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…ef77backed Yes | 42c | 189.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 51c | 174.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 51c | 165$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…b2e2backed Yes | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…4a8fbacked Yes | 44c | 127.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 47c | 119.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…859fbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…ac60backed Yes | 54c | 100.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a0…8ca8backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 53c | 96.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 46c | 86.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ea…d556backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…b954backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 52c | 69.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 42c | 54.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4347…3acbbacked Yes | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 54c | 24.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-10-31?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-10-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.