Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d90b1b96846b83876037ee9a34d18b23ce5be278a4e2c3f9a832ec6101b625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,020 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 10c | 1,817$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 1,250$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.65 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 1,086$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.74 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 19c | 994.47$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.1 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 20c | 462$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.22 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 400.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 319$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 164$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 23c | 154.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8a…cd17backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked Yes | 21c | 78.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 17c | 72.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…0c01backed Yes | 20c | 50.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 20.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-06?this page
- Will FC Famalicão vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-03-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.