Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f6d0cd4a60a16f5a49ef98c4a259ef8f0a04669c60da55404f68cf2befbee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,907$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 23c | 295.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 8c | 255.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb0…c1d7backed Yes | 10c | 233.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 227.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 207.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 6c | 181.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 29c | 149.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 71c | 143.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Yes | 11c | 123.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 117.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 25c | 116.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 96.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c1…51f6backed Yes | 24c | 96.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 23c | 93.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 15c | 88.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b16backed Yes | 15c | 84.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes | 22c | 84.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 15c | 74.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 73.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd899…8e49backed Yes | 24c | 71.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…039fbacked Yes | 20c | 68.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 18c | 59.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 78c | 47.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 26c | 47.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e6…c337backed No | 78c | 47.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…b509backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 79c | 44.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 80c | 36.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 33.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…978bbacked No | 74c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 76c | 23.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 22.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 18.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 78c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 78c | 15.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 75c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 79c | 14.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.