Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe3d760440b5fb74ae541b6ad85b286c0baaaffbd714744d1d30497fbf2d2259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 4c | 707.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 670.13$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Yes | 61c | 435.67$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 321.4$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.98 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 32c | 295.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.33 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 291.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.05 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 287.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 22c | 223.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 220.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 38c | 185.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 75c | 157.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 62c | 155.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 64c | 151.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 46c | 133.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 131.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 119.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 60c | 119.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 110.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…06a2backed Yes | 65c | 108.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 99.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 27c | 99.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 71c | 98.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c1…51f6backed Yes | 28c | 90.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 42c | 77.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 28c | 75.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 72c | 68.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 75c | 64.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 73c | 64.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 63.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 63c | 58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 30c | 56.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 36c | 56.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed No | 60c | 52.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2c…d68fbacked No | 75c | 52.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 36c | 51.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed No | 64c | 50.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbf…1b94backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 34c | 48.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 62c | 46.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 39c | 46.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 67c | 44.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…bd87backed Yes | 54c | 44.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…039fbacked Yes | 33c | 43.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 30c | 42.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 64c | 41.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 35c | 40.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 76c | 38.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 37.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 35c | 37.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 37c | 37.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…345dbacked Yes | 45c | 36.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 33c | 34.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 55c | 33.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 32.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 31.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 45c | 30.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…5746backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 79c | 28.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 27.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 68c | 27.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 68c | 25.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 60c | 22.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 57c | 21.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 67c | 20.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 67c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 55c | 19.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 72c | 19.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked Yes | 62c | 18.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…8744backed Yes | 67c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 16.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 73c | 16.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 68c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…0978backed Yes | 69c | 15.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…d2dfbacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 13.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.