TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,542 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3288…b8cebacked No4c707.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.567728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c670.13$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69cc…2e44backed Yes61c435.67$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.111050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No70c321.4$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9886173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb977…b5e2backed Yes32c295.48$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.332030%6 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-44.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c291.22$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.051,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes25c287.31$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.381,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No22c223.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3574926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No11c220.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xed05…9368backed No38c185.77$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.591723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-62.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes75c157.7$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7425344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes62c155.74$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886d…c586backed Yes64c151.68$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.332339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes46c133.63$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8511044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c131.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No49c119.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.14,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No60c119.47$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0253437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c110.07$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.27,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadd4…06a2backed Yes65c108.1$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes36c99.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes27c99.45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3621142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed No71c98.04$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.359054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c1…51f6backed Yes28c90.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.811827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes42c77.83$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes28c75.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0322934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No72c68.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6716456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No75c64.86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6519152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No73c64.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.617558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c63.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.013,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No63c58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3537533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes30c56.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.629235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes36c56.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.947642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5d…2a43backed No60c52.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52552%13 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb2c…d68fbacked No75c52.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.991323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes36c51.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3526566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeac…2970backed No64c50.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.462532%8 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dbf…1b94backed No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes34c48.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.142544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae71…9750backed No62c46.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.91968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes39c46.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1239541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No67c44.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0820958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bb…bd87backed Yes54c44.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.34650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26d…039fbacked Yes33c43.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.041540%6 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes30c42.78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.954025%10 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…af97backed Yes64c41.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9510658.5%62 W · 44 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes35c40.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1340242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x301f…2ddfbacked No76c38.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.271668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No77c37.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9670770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes35c37.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.367846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652d…6063backed No37c37.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.919322.6%21 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes41c37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8312337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc8…345dbacked Yes45c36.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+69.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes33c34.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8611436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff7…931dbacked No55c33.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.623548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c32.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes34c31.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No45c30.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1493734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c30.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.052,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7a…5746backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-62.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc678…e738backed Yes79c28.54$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.022259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f2c…6e24backed No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.63423.5%8 W · 26 L-10.9wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0x7d9c…1450backed No78c27.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8214251.4%73 W · 69 L-21.9wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-29.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No68c27.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.899361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No68c25.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4427756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No60c22.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5921429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes57c21.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0499961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No67c20.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No65c19.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.557972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a9…3003backed No67c19.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.912969%20 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No55c19.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.416740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No72c19.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7826458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc510…5c9fbacked Yes62c18.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.131040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4dd…8744backed Yes67c18.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.91361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No64c16.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.429161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No73c16.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8528954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No68c15.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8747442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2a…0978backed Yes69c15.17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.69366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d2…d2dfbacked Yes79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.151323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-68.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes79c13.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.851,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.