Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c47b1bdd80395a7bc0e635ce5801ca9582db7ba71bb3ff056953b9691866967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 852.29$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 408.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 326.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 36c | 321.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 294.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 259.17$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 61c | 223.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked No | 71c | 194.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 16c | 145.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 27c | 142.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 68c | 142.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 22c | 137.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed No | 69c | 124.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 13c | 111.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 61c | 105.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 69c | 104.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 103.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed No | 70c | 98.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 36c | 97.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked No | 71c | 97.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 43c | 93.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 93.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 77c | 90.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 22c | 90.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eff…37cebacked Yes | 33c | 83.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 80.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 15c | 74.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…4dfabacked Yes | 15c | 70.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…c9e1backed No | 70c | 69.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 20c | 62.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 35c | 56.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb938…c094backed Yes | 38c | 55.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 40c | 51.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 60c | 48.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 78c | 44.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 30c | 43.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 42c | 43.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2c…d68fbacked No | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 26c | 40.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 69c | 35.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 30c | 34.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 68c | 32.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 35c | 31.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 35c | 29.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 76c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 67c | 24.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 71c | 20.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 63c | 19.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed No | 71c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked No | 71c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 78c | 16.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 75c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.