College Football · resolved market
Spread: South Florida (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf625fa2c93989a315f10b9292329c33fec1cbc5c6f23feca42ec75cfb79d94c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South Floridaof South Florida, North Texas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed South Florida | 45c | 10,000$4,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,525 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked North Texas | 55c | 9,018$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked North Texas | 57c | 2,760$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.2 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Texas | 54c | 2,504$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.08 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked South Florida | 41c | 2,100$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed South Florida | 44c | 1,888$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.3 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed South Florida | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked South Florida | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked South Florida | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed South Florida | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…bb41backed South Florida | 43c | 260$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed North Texas | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked South Florida | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed North Texas | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked North Texas | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked South Florida | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: South Florida (-1.5)this page
- O/U 67.5Over won
- South Florida vs. North TexasSouth Florida won
- South Florida vs. North Texas: O/U 66.5Over won
- South Florida vs. North Texas: O/U 68.5Over won
- Spread: North Texas (-1.5)South Florida won
- Spread: North Texas (-2.5)South Florida won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.