College Football · resolved market
Will Georgia beat Notre Dame by 2 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf643b8a1a6f851faa8a16ec025874149cf27f9c6a2b81130050a70773c339aa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Irishof Georgia, Irish
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd4b…5ea1backed Irish | 53c | 3,953$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Georgia | 47c | 2,935$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.07 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…01c0backed Georgia | 52c | 2,004$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…c487backed Irish | 48c | 1,606$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Irish | 77c | 752.53$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…f73ebacked Irish | 56c | 296.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Georgia | 44c | 222.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…1e41backed Irish | 47c | 212.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Irish | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Irish | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Georgia | 46c | 185$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…a124backed Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9322backed Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…9d26backed Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d34…d498backed Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6d…7ca2backed Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd25…793dbacked Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…7bbfbacked Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…5298backed Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…5b49backed Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…a82fbacked Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…211cbacked Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…b1d6backed Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…366abacked Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…d6b6backed Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc689…f21fbacked Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6a…0566backed Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…432abacked Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…7f6ebacked Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501e…7212backed Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bc…9dbcbacked Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…2e3fbacked Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…480fbacked Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…fad2backed Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…c3f1backed Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…1a01backed Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db0…0724backed Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…cdb7backed Georgia | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…c804backed Irish | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Georgia | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Irish | 50c | 26.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Irish | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.