Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs BRUTE (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf652a1562d1d8ba263da34cd68bd49740dd8bd430777ef151db3e6cfb11c8d9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, BRUTE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,416 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed BRUTE | 15c | 15,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.99 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed BRUTE | 2c | 2,675$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 456 | 18.9%86 W · 370 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed BRUTE | 15c | 1,579$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.89 | 360 | 34.4%124 W · 236 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed BRUTE | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked BRUTE | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 771 | 31.8%245 W · 526 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed BRUTE | 16c | 908$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed BRUTE | 16c | 729.71$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.09 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked BRUTE | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed BRUTE | 17c | 514.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 411 | 33.8%139 W · 272 L | -28.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc24…037ebacked BRUTE | 16c | 466.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed BRUTE | 13c | 334.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked BRUTE | 15c | 295.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed BRUTE | 20c | 252$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed BRUTE | 19c | 209.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked BRUTE | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed BRUTE | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 46.5%131 W · 151 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…36babacked BRUTE | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked BRUTE | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | -14.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc5…625dbacked BRUTE | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed BRUTE | 18c | 69.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked NightBirds | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…f152backed NightBirds | 80c | 15.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs BRUTE (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffsthis page
- Game Handicap: NBS (-2.5) vs BRUTE (+2.5)NightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs BRUTE - Game 1 WinnerNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs BRUTE - Game 2 WinnerNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs BRUTE - Game 3 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.