Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf66ecc0b116edcb99e73f32f0f56212e3d6bcd2ebc2567c2d1ccf8c1e613991e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Down | 2c | 1,060$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 65c | 814.34$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.06 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Up | 48c | 586.21$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.95 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 54c | 547.47$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.22 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 51c | 513.74$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.08 | 357 | 50.4%180 W · 177 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Down | 30c | 448.17$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.06 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 37c | 409.05$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 48c | 370.87$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.27 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Down | 69c | 326.47$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Down | 45c | 227$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 65cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Up | 42c | 137.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…84adbacked Up | 68c | 130.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 34c | 125.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…e626backed Down | 73c | 113.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…b959backed Up | 29c | 102.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked Up | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…59d7backed Down | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…f998backed Up | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 18cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Up | 33c | 69.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…000cbacked Down | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…3aeabacked Down | 48c | 65.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 28c | 55.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…1af3backed Down | 60c | 51.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed Up | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Up | 55c | 44.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…a554backed Up | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf8…37a8backed Up | 55c | 26.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…1da5backed Up | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…8df7backed Up | 47c | 24.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.