NHL · resolved market
KHL: CSKA Moscow vs. Severstal Cherepovets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf68705ac68f796ad2b412fc693bbd73b2407fce62b4f565ca83676666afa6a1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CSKA Moscowof CSKA Moscow, Severstal Cherepovets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked CSKA Moscow | 54c | 199.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33e…1f2fbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Severstal Cherepovets | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Severstal Cherepovets | 42c | 86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Severstal Cherepovets | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 36c | 61.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed CSKA Moscow | 64c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed CSKA Moscow | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked CSKA Moscow | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked CSKA Moscow | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed CSKA Moscow | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed CSKA Moscow | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked CSKA Moscow | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.