Other European Leagues · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6e87bd1b84210f7b197cd7bccff8471ef1e7674a50e4747105847ec712db4d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 1,515$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.12 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Over | 70c | 1,400$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 29c | 1,120$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.8 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 52c | 954.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Over | 73c | 513.17$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 444$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 334.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 73c | 216.78$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.66 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…f8e1backed Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 45c | 104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…c805backed Under | 42c | 47.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…fe7abacked Under | 30c | 35.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +130%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…3da0backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…8dc7backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 3.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. SBV Excelsior: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)SBV Excelsior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.