MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf769821bc8b060a31e4bbe7e5aed361aec71ab3ca5791320788d180c3df48b36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,058 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Milwaukee Brewers | 0c | 3,868$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 2,812$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.02 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 1,823$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.16 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.75 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 1,152$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.98 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 491$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.82 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 402$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 306$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.27 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 223.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 208$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Milwaukee Brewers | 12c | 204$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 190$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…0c52backed Milwaukee Brewers | 8c | 183.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 156$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 133.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Milwaukee Brewers | 28c | 86.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 81.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 65.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 60.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 22.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 21.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.