WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs. Sun
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf76eb22cfb11032cd9ca040286ec4bad98979634183927e4d347db9bbc28c05b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunof Mercury, Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Sun | 18c | 6,378$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,229.94 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Mercury | 42c | 1,330$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.03 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mercury | 76c | 756$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.47 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Sun | 25c | 710.77$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Sun | 28c | 651.78$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Sun | 17c | 600$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sun | 19c | 535.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.33 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…60dabacked Sun | 68c | 530$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sun | 19c | 529.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.46 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Sun | 18c | 445.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.43 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Mercury | 77c | 322.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Sun | 20c | 308.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.08 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mercury | 72c | 238.9$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked Sun | 18c | 207.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 47c | 200.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mercury | 79c | 199.01$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Sun | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Mercury | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Sun | 30c | 145.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…2b2cbacked Sun | 16c | 144.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Sun | 24c | 141.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sun | 17c | 117.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.91 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…fc7bbacked Sun | 14c | 108.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Sun | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Mercury | 35c | 94.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Sun | 30c | 78.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…5e30backed Mercury | 80c | 51.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 80c | 44.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Mercury | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Mercury | 67c | 27.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.