Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf78aa48f22498153079d5581435cf8c33caab84b644d6c417c2490f107395a63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,376$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.95 | 251 | 41%103 W · 148 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 388.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 17c | 299.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 17c | 277.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked Yes | 11c | 147$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 75c | 97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 80c | 80.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 79c | 66.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 75c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 74c | 15.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Hajduk Split vs. FK Žalgiris Vilnius end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Žalgiris Vilnius win on 2026-08-13?No won
- Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-08-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.