Tennis · resolved market
ATP Umag – Carabelli vs. Darderi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79580d9fde9fd77d9e43a916f1b1a99e43a3a83d629c7c332ae3bd1a5ca8d27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darderiof Carabelli, Darderi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Darderi | 66c | 2,704$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.34 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Carabelli | 28c | 2,421$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.62 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Darderi | 72c | 1,994$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.4 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed Carabelli | 30c | 1,847$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.03 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Carabelli | 34c | 1,612$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.63 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Darderi | 70c | 1,493$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.15 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Darderi | 72c | 1,145$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.62 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Carabelli | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Carabelli | 7c | 690$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Darderi | 74c | 677.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Carabelli | 28c | 610$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.85 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Carabelli | 29c | 394$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Carabelli | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Carabelli | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Carabelli | 31c | 261.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Darderi | 75c | 253.32$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Carabelli | 27c | 252.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Darderi | 72c | 243.06$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Darderi | 71c | 227.68$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Carabelli | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Carabelli | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…bdcabacked Darderi | 73c | 162.64$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Darderi | 73c | 155$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Darderi | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Darderi | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Carabelli | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Darderi | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Carabelli | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Carabelli | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Carabelli | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Carabelli | 29c | 38.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Darderi | 73c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Darderi | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.