Tennis · resolved market
Rolex Paris Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79b54c671e387d070d70b1eb58532dfac8daf5d6ab3c0cd15dce7d2dbc17dee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carabelliof Etcheverry, Carabelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Etcheverry | 39c | 11,177$4,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,366.85 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Carabelli | 51c | 6,360$3,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.68 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Carabelli | 18c | 5,282$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,345.16 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad2…98c6backed Etcheverry | 74c | 5,015$3,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,733.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Carabelli | 57c | 4,520$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.29 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Etcheverry | 71c | 3,404$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.57 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Carabelli | 69c | 2,429$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.54 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Carabelli | 52c | 1,924$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.23 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Carabelli | 15c | 1,404$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.18 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Carabelli | 17c | 1,400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.07 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Etcheverry | 73c | 1,215$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.77 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Etcheverry | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Etcheverry | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Carabelli | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Carabelli | 30c | 559$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.63 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Carabelli | 28c | 550$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Etcheverry | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Carabelli | 33c | 350.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.85 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Carabelli | 46c | 274.16$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Etcheverry | 80c | 269.55$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.64 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Carabelli | 32c | 162.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Carabelli | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…44b7backed Carabelli | 39c | 146.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…8757backed Etcheverry | 69c | 144.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…0bddbacked Carabelli | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…c632backed Carabelli | 36c | 140.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65be…8145backed Carabelli | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b4…df08backed Carabelli | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Carabelli | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…45dfbacked Carabelli | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Carabelli | 16c | 116.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Etcheverry | 21c | 114.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Carabelli | 16c | 111$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Carabelli | 20c | 101.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Carabelli | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Carabelli | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…280ebacked Carabelli | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Carabelli | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…1952backed Carabelli | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Carabelli | 41c | 98.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…b75bbacked Etcheverry | 60c | 82.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…98b7backed Carabelli | 19c | 79.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Carabelli | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Carabelli | 17c | 63.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Etcheverry | 67c | 62.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Etcheverry | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Etcheverry | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Carabelli | 20c | 50.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Carabelli | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…686ebacked Carabelli | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…4448backed Etcheverry | 79c | 44.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 79cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Etcheverry | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed Etcheverry | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.