Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7a73627e32263c007414ed7f0c0dd8d42b21b619c58b2f0472cfcde92c1c812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Game Masterof Team Refuser, Game Master
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Game Master | 50c | 2,868$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…d802backed Team Refuser | 2c | 2,076$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 11cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Game Master | 63c | 1,172$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.21 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Team Refuser | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Team Refuser | 50c | 560$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Team Refuser | 54c | 559.63$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.2 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Team Refuser | 50c | 478$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Team Refuser | 58c | 345.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Team Refuser | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Refuser | 50c | 254.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.48 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Game Master | 75c | 237.63$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Game Master | 46c | 215.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Team Refuser | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Team Refuser | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Game Master | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Refuser | 53c | 80.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Team Refuser | 54c | 79.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Team Refuser | 62c | 64.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Refuser | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Team Refuser | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…fc2ebacked Team Refuser | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55e…a07abacked Team Refuser | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…f1a3backed Team Refuser | 41c | 27.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Game Master | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 WinnerGame Master won
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 WinnerGame Master won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.