Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ae28c748253ce5629c8cb700cf1eec36de48528ba077f22e3feb31a5ee9db3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Auger-Aliassime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Auger-Aliassime | 76c | 3,302$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Medvedev | 24c | 2,170$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.1 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Medvedev | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Auger-Aliassime | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Medvedev | 27c | 416.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.71 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Medvedev | 31c | 387.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.03 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Medvedev | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.99 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Medvedev | 65c | 276.17$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 240.38$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.05 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Medvedev | 32c | 203.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 171.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 245 | 60%147 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Medvedev | 26c | 152.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Auger-Aliassime | 10c | 132.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…68dabacked Medvedev | 30c | 111$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Auger-Aliassime | 31c | 91.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Medvedev | 41c | 86.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Medvedev | 59c | 83.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 75.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 74.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Medvedev | 30c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Auger-Aliassime | 70c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Auger-Aliassime | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Medvedev | 30c | 66.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Medvedev | 38c | 58.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Auger-Aliassime | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Auger-Aliassime | 70c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…3942backed Auger-Aliassime | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…e2c8backed Auger-Aliassime | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11af…beb8backed Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb975…e19abacked Auger-Aliassime | 72c | 25.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Auger-Aliassime | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs MedvedevMedvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.