WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Storm
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7cfcc072ffd0e9fc45998fe10a427f44733a2bb13ae389ffd14db1fcfa019c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stormof Mercury, Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Mercury | 32c | 8,003$2,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.33 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Storm | 67c | 7,362$4,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Storm | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Storm | 68c | 700.3$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.1 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mercury | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Storm | 66c | 527.95$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.21 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Mercury | 47c | 418.96$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Storm | 72c | 339$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Mercury | 38c | 254.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Storm | 66c | 210$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Storm | 66c | 172.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Mercury | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Storm | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Storm | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Mercury | 33c | 113.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Storm | 66c | 103.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…05f0backed Mercury | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mercury | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 33c | 63.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Storm | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Mercury | 24c | 41.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mercury | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Storm | 67c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Storm | 64c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.